In the past few years, California has experienced a notable decline in cannabis farm licenses. Until recently the decline has been predictably focused on smaller farms in the Emerald Triangle as they feel pressure from big commercial ag operations from California's Central Coast. Poor wholesale prices in the past 24 months are starting to affect larger producers as well, particularly in Santa Barbara where several large farms have begun to wind down operations. This development has raised concerns among outdoor farmers who are now questioning how much to plant in response to these changes.
One key factor that will influence the decision-making process for outdoor farmers is whether their competitors will ramp up production or if prices will increase as a result of the reduced supply. This uncertainty creates a challenging situation for farmers as they navigate the supply and demand dynamics in California's cannabis market.
The closure of large farms in Santa Barbara could potentially lead to a decrease in overall supply, which may drive up prices due to limited availability. On the other hand, it is also possible that some competitors may seize this opportunity and increase their production to fill the gap left by those who have exited the market.
Ultimately, the decision on how much to plant will depend on various factors such as market projections, pricing trends, and individual farm strategies. Outdoor farmers must carefully assess these variables and make informed decisions that align with their business goals and expectations for profitability in this evolving industry.